Reference recovery
$18.3M to $32.5MIllustrative P50 to PML rangeBI within assumed period$8.4M
Reference
USE CASES / 02
PROPERTY + MACHINERY LOSS
Know what one bad day costs before you set the limit.
Put property damage and business interruption in the same loss view. See which assumptions move the range before a coverage decision locks them in.
Interactive concept demo with fictional plant data. No site estimate or insurance quote is produced here.
ROSELLA / SCENARIO BRIEFHUMAN REVIEW PENDINGSAMPLE DATA, CONCEPT DEMO / FICTIONAL PLANTS
01 / DEFINE THE LOSSPlant loss scenario
Fire or bottleneck machinery loss, with property damage and interrupted production.
90 days replacement + restart
60 to 540 days. The assumed 12-month BI indemnity period caps the BI amount shown in PML.
02 / INSPECT THE RANGEMeridian Foods
NOT SIGNED OFFPML / 1-IN-250 ASSUMPTION$32.5MProperty + BI within sample indemnity period
CHANGE FROM BASELINENo changeSame sample plant / verified / 90 days
Property damage$24.1MMODEL / SAMPLE SOV
Business interruption$8.4MMODEL / SAMPLE BI WORKSHEET
Meridian Foods: with verified fixed protection and 90 days of assumed recovery, the sample modeled PML is $32.5M: $24.1M property damage plus $8.4M BI inside the assumed 12-month indemnity period. No modeled lost production exposure falls beyond that sample period.
WALKTHROUGH PAUSED
01/ THE COST OF ONE WRONG ASSUMPTION
A machine goes down. The loss keeps moving.
A bottleneck line can stop production long after the property damage is repaired. Replacement lead time changes the downtime assumption; the BI worksheet converts that interruption into a dollar range. The indemnity period then becomes a separate coverage question if recovery takes longer.
In the sample below, change recovery time and fixed protection to see the property and BI components move. Remove the BI worksheet and the total PML is withheld. The missing number is part of the answer.
Test the assumptionsSCENARIO PATHSAMPLE DATA, CONCEPT DEMO
- 01Fire or bottleneck machinery lossScenario assumption
- 02Repair and replacement lead timeExpert assumption to test
- 03Property damage + lost marginSOV and BI worksheet needed for dollars
- 04Limit, retention and indemnity periodCoverage terms for human review
SAME FICTIONAL PLANT / THREE ASSUMPTIONS
Sample data, concept demo. All three use the same sample $86M SOV, $34M annual BI worksheet and verified fixed protection. The recovery times and BI periods are assumptions, not policy terms or actual lead times.
Long replacement lead time
$31.6M to $58.1MIllustrative P50 to PML rangeBI within assumed period$34.0M
Longer recovery raises the upper point
Longer indemnity period
$35.8M to $66.0MIllustrative P50 to PML rangeBI within assumed period$41.9M
Longer period includes more BI in the modeled amount
At 450 recovery days, the sample 12-month period leaves $7.9M of further lost production exposure outside that period. This is a coverage question, not an insured recovery or premium prediction.
02/ BUILD THE DEFENSIBLE INPUTS
Every dollar needs a line back to evidence.
A one-site pilot would reconcile these inputs before a scenario is shared. This register illustrates the lineage with fictional sample records. It does not connect to live SOV, survey, plant or policy systems.
01 / SOVSample source
Statement of values
Buildings, machinery, stock and the values attached to each location
02 / COPESample source
COPE and survey
Construction, occupancy, protection and exposure findings at this site
03 / OPERATIONSExpert assumption
Machinery dependency
Which line stops when a bottleneck asset cannot be replaced
04 / BUSINESS INTERRUPTIONRequired to assert PML
Throughput and BI worksheet
Margin at risk per day, recovery plan and any make-up capacity
05 / LOSS CONTROLSample source
Protection evidence
Inspection, impairment and testing records for fixed protection
06 / POLICYCoverage question
Coverage terms
Indemnity period, waiting period, limits and retention to verify
HUMAN REVIEW GATE
The risk owner and a qualified reviewer verify the source, assumptions and unknowns. They sign off before an estimate is used outside the working team.
03/ RUN THE SCENARIO, INSPECT THE TAIL
Move one input. See the whole loss view change.
P50 is the middle modeled loss. P90 is a loss level that 9 in 10 of these sample outcomes do not exceed. PML marks a specified severe point on the tail. The curve shows how often this illustrative model exceeds each dollar level, not a measured frequency at a real plant.
Simulation illustrates sensitivity here. It needs calibrated site evidence and human review before anyone treats a range as an external-facing estimate. These numbers are not actuarial guarantees or promised insured recoveries.
ROSELLA / SCENARIO BRIEFHUMAN REVIEW PENDINGSAMPLE DATA, CONCEPT DEMO / FICTIONAL PLANTS
01 / DEFINE THE LOSSPlant loss scenario
Fire or bottleneck machinery loss, with property damage and interrupted production.
90 days replacement + restart
60 to 540 days. The assumed 12-month BI indemnity period caps the BI amount shown in PML.
02 / INSPECT THE RANGEMeridian Foods
NOT SIGNED OFFPML / 1-IN-250 ASSUMPTION$32.5MProperty + BI within sample indemnity period
CHANGE FROM BASELINENo changeSame sample plant / verified / 90 days
Property damage$24.1MMODEL / SAMPLE SOV
Business interruption$8.4MMODEL / SAMPLE BI WORKSHEET
P50 / EVENT SEVERITY$18.3M
P90 / EVENT SEVERITY$27.5M
Conditional event severity percentiles from an illustrative distribution, not calibrated simulation results.
Illustrative loss exceedanceANNUAL FREQUENCY ASSUMPTIONS
PML $32.5M
MODELED OUTAGE90 daysRecovery + protection assumption
LOST PRODUCTION EXPOSURE$8.4MSample BI worksheet rate
BEYOND 12-MONTH PERIOD$0.0MCoverage question, not a coverage decision
Meridian Foods: with verified fixed protection and 90 days of assumed recovery, the sample modeled PML is $32.5M: $24.1M property damage plus $8.4M BI inside the assumed 12-month indemnity period. No modeled lost production exposure falls beyond that sample period.
INPUT LINEAGESOV $86.0MSample values: building $52.0M, equipment $24.0M, stock $10.0M
BI RATE$34.0M / yearFictional sample BI worksheet
MODEL ASSUMPTIONS12-month BI periodSample policy assumption. Property severity 28%; impairment: 1.55× property, 1.25× outage. Event chance: 10% / year
How a 10,000-run study would extend this view
An analyst could vary damage severity, replacement lead time, restart time, and BI rate across 10,000 draws, then inspect the loss distribution and tail. This page does not run those draws. Its P50 and P90 are conditional event severity percentiles from an illustrative inverse-CDF. The annual curve applies an assumed 10% yearly event chance, making its PML point 1 in 250, or 0.4% annual exceedance. The 365-day indemnity cap is also a sample assumption. A human reviewer would confirm source data and model choices before an external-facing estimate.
WALKTHROUGH PAUSED
04/ THE COVERAGE DISCUSSION
Take the range, its sources and its open questions.
A risk owner needs more than one headline number at renewal. The useful output is a reviewed scenario brief that separates property from BI, records the highest-impact uncertainty and names the next site data needed to narrow the range.
ON THIS PAGE
Interactive prototype using fictional sample data
FOUNDER-LED PAID PILOT
One site, reviewed assumptions and a range linked to supplied evidence
BEFORE EXTERNAL USE
Risk owner and qualified reviewer approve the scenario brief
SCENARIO BRIEF / SAMPLE FORMATREVIEW REQUIRED
One site. One severe loss. The questions behind the limit
- Scenario
- Bottleneck machinery loss with property damage and interrupted production
- Sources to verify
- SOV, COPE and survey, BI worksheet, protection record
- Top uncertainty
- Replacement lead time and make-up production capacity
- Coverage questions
- Does the limit, retention and BI indemnity period fit the reviewed range?
- Next site data
- Verified throughput, margin and machinery lead-time evidence
Concept format only. It contains no customer evidence, carrier acceptance or premium prediction.
START WITH ONE SITE
Know which number you can defend.
Talk with the founders about a paid one-site pilot. Bring the loss question and the evidence you can share through an agreed process; together we can scope a reviewed property and BI scenario for your coverage discussion.
Book a one-site pilot discussion